Projections of the size and growth of the humm creator economy

The table presented above encapsulates the projected growth metrics of the humm creator economy over a span of 20 years. This forecast, grounded in initial startup conditions, extends to a saturation point resembling platforms like Patreon. The salient features of this growth trajectory include:

• A robust increase in the number of creators, reaching a plateau indicative of a mature platform.

• The number of users demonstrates an exponential surge, signifying the platform's ability to attract and retain a vast audience.

• The average number of communities per user showcases a steady ascent, indicating users' diversifying interests and the platform's expanding content diversity.

• Spending per community and spending per user both observe consistent growth, emphasizing the platform's value proposition and users' increasing engagement.

• The amount redeemed by creators sees a marked rise, reinforcing the platform's commitment to rewarding content creators.

% humm creators over Years: The first chart showcases the growth in the percentage of humm creators over the years. This steady increase demonstrates the platform's consistent appeal to creators. As the platform matures, it continues to attract a larger proportion of creators, signifying its growing impact and influence within the creator ecosystem.

Users per Community and Total Consumers over Years: The second chart contrasts the users per community (in blue) with the total consumers (in red) over the years. Both metrics show growth, but the total consumers seem to increase at a steeper rate than users per community after the initial years. This suggests that while communities are growing, the platform is also succeeding in drawing more overall consumers, possibly due to more diverse content offerings or better engagement strategies.

Average Earnings per Creator vs. Spent per User over Years: The third chart juxtaposes the average earnings per creator (in blue) against the average amount spent per user (in red). Both metrics are on an upward trend, with the average spent per user growing at a slightly steeper rate. This could indicate that while creators are earning more over time, users are spending even more, which might be attributed to higher quality content, more premium offerings, or increased user engagement.

To forecast the potential growth of the number of creators on the platform, a Monte Carlo simulation was employed. This probabilistic technique allows for modeling the uncertainty inherent in predictive scenarios. The mathematical foundation for our projection is based on a geometric progression:

an=a1×r(n−1)

where an​ represents the number of creators in the nth year, a1​ is the initial number of creators, and r is the common growth ratio. For our simulations, r was randomized within a predetermined range to encapsulate varying potential growth rates.

The results from 1 million simulations yielded a range of potential outcomes. The 5th to 95th percentiles of these outcomes provide a confidence interval for the projected growth. By year 20, the median projection suggests a creator base approaching 30.7 million. It's essential to interpret these results with the understanding that actual growth may be influenced by various external factors not accounted for in this model, and the model should be periodically recalibrated based on real-world data.

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Projections of the size and growth of the creator economy

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